Georgia Power: Your Bill, Outages, and Service Status

Generated Title: Georgia Power's Data Center Gamble: Ratepayers or Risky Bets?

The Data Deluge and Georgia Power's Appetite

Georgia Power is facing a classic dilemma: bet big on future growth or protect current customers from potential losses. The utility wants to add a staggering 10,000 megawatts to its power generation fleet in the next five years, driven by the surging demand from data centers. That’s roughly equivalent to nine additional Vogtle reactors (each Vogtle unit produces about 1,100 MW). The Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) staff, however, is pumping the brakes, recommending approval for only a third of the proposed expansion for now.

The core issue? Risk. Georgia Power claims that the demand is rock solid, citing 11,000 megawatts of “committed” electricity service from large customers. But the PSC staff isn't buying it, and for good reason. They argue that only a fraction of this demand is backed by signed contracts under the new "large load" billing rules designed to shield residential customers. The rest is, according to the PSC’s Robert Trokey, “speculative and exposes customers to the risk of stranded costs if the anticipated load does not materialize.”

The Pipeline Problem: Shrinking Commitments, Growing Concerns

Here's where the numbers get interesting, and frankly, a bit unsettling. Georgia Power's own data reveals a concerning trend: the pipeline of large load economic development projects shrank by a net 6 GW (that's 6,000 megawatts) from the second to third quarter of 2025, landing at 50.9 GW. New projects entered, and some increased their projected load, but a whopping 14.3 GW of projects exited the pipeline. Georgia Power’s large load pipeline shrinks by 6 GW

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Georgia Power states that the number of commitments for electric service has grown, yet the overall pipeline is shrinking. How can commitments increase while the total demand in the pipeline decreases? The answer, likely, lies in the type of projects exiting versus entering. Are we seeing smaller, more reliable customers replacing larger, more speculative ones? The filings don't offer enough granularity to say for sure, but it raises a critical question about the quality of Georgia Power's demand forecast.

To add another layer, the PSC staff testimony highlights that a significant portion of the data center segment is "underperforming expectations due to a mixture of lower materialization rates, project cancellations, and delays." Since the 2023 IRP Update, thirty-three data center projects with 11,332 MW of announced load have been removed from the pipeline. That's 55% of all project removals and 65% of the announced load removed. Twenty-four percent of data center projects that entered the Large Load Review Mechanism (LRM) have been removed, averaging five exits per quarter. Is Georgia Power's model accurately accounting for this volatility?

The utility states that options exist to mitigate these risks—new contracts, delayed construction, or changed electricity targets. But these are reactive measures. The core problem is the initial forecast. If the forecast is flawed, these reactive measures may not be sufficient to prevent cost overruns and, ultimately, higher bills for residential customers.

The Political Heat and the Looming Decision

The timing of this decision couldn't be more politically charged. Two Republican PSC commissioners, Fitz Johnson and Tim Echols, who lost their seats in recent elections amid voter frustration over rising utility bills, will get to cast votes on this critical case before leaving office. Their replacements, two Democrats, won't be seated until after the December 19th vote. This lame-duck vote adds another layer of uncertainty and raises questions about the long-term interests of Georgia ratepayers.

It’s unlikely customers would feel any bill increases from the data center expansion before 2029, but the decisions made now will have lasting consequences. Georgia Power argues that a growing portfolio of large customers has “committed” to receiving electricity service from the utility, and this portfolio has grown to 11,000 MW. However, the PSC staff notes that most of these contracts were signed before the new “large load” billing rules took effect. Without executed contracts under the new framework, there's "no guarantee those costs will not be passed on to existing customers." This is a critical point often overlooked.

Georgia is undeniably a hot market for data centers, but just as quickly as these operators announce their arrival, they can cancel contracts or relocate to other states. The PSC staff has already seen this happen in Georgia. The risk of overbuilding is real, and if Georgia Power’s aggressive forecasts prove overly optimistic (and there's mounting evidence that they are), existing customers could be stuck footing the bill for power plants they don't need.

A Colossal Miscalculation?

Georgia Power stands to profit "tremendously" from this expansion, nearly doubling its "rate base," a key factor in determining its earnings. The PSC staff has recommended approving only 3,100 megawatts of the 10,000 requested, with another 4,200 approved conditionally. The remaining 2,400 megawatts, deemed too expensive, should be rejected outright. This recommendation reflects a cautious approach, prioritizing the protection of ratepayers over the potentially inflated ambitions of Georgia Power. The question now is whether the PSC will heed this warning or gamble on a future that may never materialize.